Measure and automate
What a customer is worth, and what winning one costs
Lifetime value divided by acquisition cost is the most quoted and most abused ratio in marketing, because the two halves are usually measured over different populations. Here they are measured over the same one, and a month that cannot be counted on both sides is left off both.
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How it is measured
Where this sits in the loop
Measure. It counts the real result. It follows Execute and hands on to Learn.
- 1
Grouped by the month of first purchase
A cohort is everybody who first bought in one month. What they spent afterwards and what it cost to win them are both properties of that group.
- 2
Both sides, or neither
A month missing either half is excluded from both and named, rather than producing a ratio from mismatched populations.
- 3
Payback is time, not a multiple
How long a cohort took to return what it cost to win — which is the number that decides whether you can afford to grow faster.
What it proves
No ninety-day figure before ninety days
A cohort that has not had the time simply has no figure for that window, rather than a partial one presented as complete.
The forecast is recorded and then checked
A four-week forecast is written down when made and scored once the weeks have passed. It is never revised afterwards, which is what makes the track record meaningful.
Margin-based where you supply margin
Figures that need your cost of goods are withheld until you give it, rather than computed on revenue and labelled as value.
What it cannot prove
The claims this refuses to make, and what would be needed before it could.
It needs history
Cohort economics are meaningless in the first months. The page says what it cannot yet calculate instead of showing an early number that will move wildly.
Acquisition cost covers what Xyranik can see
Spend it has no access to — offline, agency retainers, channels not connected — is not in the denominator, and that is stated rather than implied away.
Find out what you can actually prove
Revenue is traced once per order, and where it cannot be traced the page says so. Attributed and incremental are shown as different things, because a business acting on one when it meant the other makes the wrong decision.